Banks and businesses
The decline in inflation continues in Italy began in September so marked as in the EU. It 's a good news for the purchasing power of families to be placed in an international context, European, Italian and remain of concern. Consider these facts, the causes and effects of the decline in inflation, the associated monetary and credit policies.
facts. In Italy in August, consumer prices have increased over the same month in 2007, 4.1% at the end of an acceleration. Then there was a decline which has led to a December 2008 price growth of 2.2% trend, that is compared to the same month last year. A brake damping very bad since the annual average for 2008 with inflation at 3.3%. The decline is largely due to the retreat in fuel prices which marked a very strong trend towards a decrease in December and are still growing, among others, food, and the chapter-house-water-electricity fuels. However, in December to November, or even here there was a substantial slowdown or decrease.
for 2009 is expected to further braking of inflation to 1% by mid-year before recovering in the second half closing annual average of well under 2% if the price of oil will remain around $ 50 a barrel. The comparison with the euro zone, reported in November, we see a trend towards higher inflation by about 0.6 percentage points. The causes of the decline in inflation are at least two, both related to the current international crisis with the sharp slowdown in the growth and positive forecasts for 2009. The fall in aggregate demand, and also the end of the wave of speculation, led to a collapse in the price of oil who has approached the $ 150 a barrel in July, then began a descent that took him in December under the forty .
At this decline was associated with that of many other subjects first with the gradual effects on product prices. Are positive for Italian consumers, whose buying power increases, even in part fueled by the good performance of the seasonal sales. However, a deflationary scenario affects the confidence and behavior. It 'clear that families are brought to a conservative behavior due to both the past and the future. For the past sufficient to note that those who had savings in the stock market has been decimated by the collapse in prices also robust with respect to such securities, however, it is worth noting the considerable current yields and the fact that the market now does not reflect the actual values.
the future is sufficient to note that many fear, or already suffering, the layoffs and unemployment at about what is good, however, also noted that they are strengthening social safety nets (hopefully also increases out of the European Social Fund) and that our unemployment rate, despite the worsening èmigliore of the German and French. And even more than English, in this case less than exemplary. How much business would take a proper perspective of demand, anywhere and unfortunately weak in Germany, where we export, to push them to invest. All this concern and no matter that the opinions vary depending on the situation described qualifies as a recession, deflation, or even depression. The monetary and credit policies, finally, must take into account relations between prices and interest rates.
So the European Central Bank, given the decline in inflation, should further lower the official interest rate from 2.50% set on December 10. It 'true that the Euribor, which is crucial market rate, the maximum in October was nearly halved for all maturities with shorter already under 2.50%. But there is room for further declines and improved credit conditions, also in Italy. It 's very positive that our banking system so far has not drawn on public finances, unlike almost all other European countries, and is coming out almost unscathed from the "financial junk" U.S.. Aspects that seems to escape the abstract doctrines of 'Antitrust.Ma because of this strength, our banking system can now do more for businesses and families. With reference to the first home mortgages, profits were the May agreement between the ABI and the Minister of Economy and the measures taken by the crisis in the decree of November sull'accollo interest in excess of the 4% threshold.
of these devices should now be an adjustment, especially for fixed-rate mortgages, in line with the decline in market interest rate. And businesses to restore their confidence, it is crucial to the strong support of the banking system which could promote in particular the funding of technology investments. A this end we want agreements between the business and banking associations, with the participation of the Ministries of Economy and Development to enhance tax measures for productivity, research funding applied to those networks and enterprise measures in the Industry 2015. " In this crisis, for now, our country, too often criticized, is doing well. It could come out even better if it gave strength to that solidarity for development that has characterized the best moments of its history.
Alberto Quadrio Curzio
Source: www.corriere.it
0 comments:
Post a Comment